Player Points Projections — Beta Preview

Sample slate · captured from live forward-testing, June 13

Our minutes-driven points model's projection vs the market line. 10 notable model leans in that sample.

This is a beta model in live forward-testing. These are model projections, not vetted picks — the NBA model has no published record yet and we're grading it against real results before claiming any edge. Playoff caveat: the model's minutes come from the regular season, and Finals rotations tighten — stars play more, benches shrink. So treat a star's "Under" and a bench player's "Over" with skepticism; they're usually a minutes artifact, not a real edge. Read it as a signal, not a green light. For entertainment only. 21+.

Player props — points

Player	Team	Proj Min	Proj PTS	Line	Model lean
Miles McBride	NYK	24	10.4	2.5	Over +7.9
Keldon Johnson	SAS	23	12.8	6.5	Over +6.3
Victor Wembanyama	SAS	29	23.5	28.5	Under -5.0
Luke Kornet	SAS	19	5.9	1.5	Over +4.4
Mitchell Robinson	NYK	20	5.7	2.5	Over +3.2
Mikal Bridges	NYK	31	13.2	10.5	Over +2.8
Jalen Brunson	NYK	36	25.0	27.5	Under -2.5
Dylan Harper	SAS	24	12.2	14.5	Under -2.3
Josh Hart	NYK	30	11.7	9.5	Over +2.2
Jose Alvarado	NYK	18	6.5	4.5	Over +2.0
Landry Shamet	NYK	24	9.4	7.5	—
Karl-Anthony Towns	NYK	30	18.4	16.5	—
De'Aaron Fox	SAS	30	17.2	15.5	—
OG Anunoby	NYK	33	15.8	17.5	—
Julian Champagnie	SAS	27	10.7	9.5	—
Devin Vassell	SAS	30	13.4	14.5	—
Stephon Castle	SAS	30	16.4	15.5	—

Projections generated 2026-06-13 21:21 UTC. Method: recency-weighted points-per-minute shrunk to the league rate, multiplied by EWMA minutes, damped by opponent defense and pace — the same matchup discipline as our MLB and NHL models. Proj Min is the regular-season minutes assumption — the single biggest driver, shown so you can judge it yourself. See How It Works. Rebounds, assists and threes are next off the same engine.

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