Bet recommendations and stake sizing are on validation hold. Forecasts and research leans remain available.
Individual-game probability calibration has not been accepted for wagering. Historical records and replays remain available.
We compare projections with market prices and track the resulting decisions. MLB recommendations and CFB system signals use different methods and have separate records.
Full MLB performance is included with Pro and MVP.
For MLB, the model compares the starter's pitch arsenal with the opposing hitters' pitch-type performance. The output is a run projection, not a promise of a final score.
Game pages include lineup, pitching and situational context. A displayed statistic or trend is not necessarily an input to the betting recommendation.
For every game we compute three numbers: moneyline edge (percentage points), runline edge (runs vs the spread), and total edge (runs vs O/U). We also track closing-line value so we can see whether the market moved in our direction after the pick was locked. Anything inside ±1pp / ±0.5 runs we treat as noise.
The home page carries a database-driven totals-movement tracker. It measures agreement with market movement after the lineup-confirmation snapshot. This is not a betting win rate or proof of profitability. Missing price snapshots limit what can be measured.
Rest, bullpen workload, wind, park, recent form. We backtested the common "angles" against 32,000+ historical games (Princeton + SBR + OddsPortal, 2010-2025) — and standalone, almost none beat the vig. So we surface situational factors as supporting context, never as the thing that makes the pick. The stats model makes the pick; the context just tells the story around it.
The MLB selection rules and Kelly check can reject a candidate. A PASS means no recommended wager. A tracked lean is research, not a substitute official bet. Kelly sizing depends on the probability estimate and offered price; an unreliable probability estimate makes the sizing unreliable too.
Completed games are graded against their recorded pick and price. Wins, losses and pushes stay in the ledger; pending games are not counted as settled results.
Free: NFL matchup previews, the CFB projection board with an account, and the latest settled MLB pick. Pro: NFL projected scores, leans, breakdowns and reviews, plus the MLB research grid and historical Kelly Moneyline performance. MLB recommendations and stakes remain on validation hold. MVP: everything in Pro, the weekly CFB system card with live system results, saved CFB analysis and a personal pick tracker. Compare plans.
We do not promise a fixed number of MLB wagers. Some days no candidate survives selection and pricing checks. The rest of the analysis remains available, with tracked leans clearly separated from recommended bets.
Public aggregates only count picks that were actually published and settled. Internal statuses such as published_pick, unpublished_logged_pick, voided_before_game, and system_error keep the audit trail readable without quietly deleting rows. That is the difference between a transparent record and a marketing chart.
Explore the MLB dashboard, or compare paid plans for the full analysis and record.
Open the dashboardMLB betting model guide | Public record policy | Kelly Criterion and PASS | The Lab
For entertainment purposes only. Not financial or betting advice.