🏈 2026 College Football — Week 4 Board
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Model-projected scores vs the early Vegas lines · updated Sep 24, 2026 17:10 UTC · lines move — this page refreshes daily
59 games in the next 8 days
57 with early lines
3 Blowout-Over system flags
3 system/model conflicts
.613 holdout margin corr (Vegas .646)
Games with early lines
| Date | Matchup | Vegas spread/total | Model spread/total | Projected score | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 24 | Liberty @ Coastal Carolina | +2.5 / 50.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Fri Sep 25 | Army @ Temple | +3.0 / 47.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Fri Sep 25 | Navy @ UAB | +6.8 / 51.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Northwestern @ Indiana | -20.8 / 49.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Clemson @ California | +1.2 / 50.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | UNLV @ Akron | +13.5 / 52.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Colorado @ Baylor | -9.5 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Virginia Tech @ Boston College | +14.0 / 47.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Ball State @ Kent State | -3.0 / 50.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Wake Forest @ Louisville | -13.8 / 56.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Illinois @ Ohio State | -27.2 / 53.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Texas @ Tennessee | +4.0 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Sam Houston @ Texas Tech | -34.5 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | San Diego State @ Toledo | -3.0 / 51.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Colorado State @ UTSA | -13.5 / 58.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | South Alabama @ Kentucky | -20.5 / 54.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | UCLA @ Maryland | +1.5 / 56.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Northern Illinois @ Georgia State | -10.5 / 56.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Notre Dame @ Purdue | +27.8 / 58.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Hawai'i @ Wyoming | +3.2 / 44.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Ole Miss @ Florida | -3.5 / 59.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Oklahoma @ Georgia | -14.0 / 44.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Utah @ Iowa State | +8.2 / 47.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | UConn @ Miami (OH) | -3.5 / 51.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Iowa @ Michigan | -5.5 / 38.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | New Mexico @ New Mexico State | +11.2 / 48.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | TCU @ UCF | +3.0 / 48.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Boise State @ Western Michigan | +7.2 / 50.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Houston @ Georgia Southern | +18.5 / 56.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Vanderbilt @ Auburn | -9.5 / 55.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | South Florida @ Bowling Green | +17.5 / 49.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Nebraska @ Michigan State | +5.8 / 48.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Wisconsin @ Penn State | -10.0 / 44.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | James Madison @ Old Dominion | +6.0 / 44.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Delaware @ Virginia | -19.5 / 52.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Louisiana @ Charlotte | +10.0 / 48.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Central Michigan @ Miami | -41.2 / 54.0 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | South Carolina @ Alabama | -12.5 / 53.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State | -6.5 / 52.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Kansas State @ Cincinnati | +6.2 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State | -7.0 / 51.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Southern Miss @ Tulane | -17.5 / 52.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Oklahoma State @ West Virginia | -1.8 / 60.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Texas A&M @ LSU | -9.0 / 51.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | App State @ NC State | -14.0 / 55.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Oregon @ USC | +3.0 / 62.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Troy @ Utah State | -3.0 / 47.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Arizona @ Washington State | +10.0 / 48.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 26 | Missouri @ Mississippi State | -6.0 / 58.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 27 | Tulsa @ Arkansas | -7.0 / 50.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 27 | Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe | +13.5 / 57.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 27 | Missouri State @ SMU | -34.8 / 59.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 27 | Oregon State @ UTEP | +10.5 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 27 | Rice @ Fresno State | -13.5 / 44.2 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 27 | Air Force @ Nevada | +5.5 / 49.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 27 | Georgia Tech @ Stanford | +3.5 / 47.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 27 | Minnesota @ Washington | -10.0 / 45.8 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Go beyond the free CFB board.
MVP adds the CFB weekly system card: published plays, conditional watchlists and the live system ledger. Historical results and live results are shown separately; neither guarantees future wins.
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MVP adds the CFB weekly system card: published plays, conditional watchlists and the live system ledger. Historical results and live results are shown separately; neither guarantees future wins.
Explore MVP →
Awaiting lines (2)
| Date | Matchup | Vegas | Model spread/total | Projected score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 2 | Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State | awaiting line | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Fri Oct 2 | North Texas @ Tulsa | awaiting line | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Methodology & honesty. Projections come from our locked CFB model: a rush/pass yards-matchup engine
(each offense vs that defense, schedule-adjusted) converted to points via team yards-per-point, ensembled with a
garbage-time-filtered efficiency model. Walk-forward validated on 2021–2025: margin correlation .586 (holdout season .613 vs the
closing line's .646), totals essentially at the closing line's accuracy. Early-season numbers are preseason ratings (last season's
units + regression; 2026 returning-production data isn't published yet — ratings sharpen when it is, and weekly in-season).
Blowout flags show the historical system's OVER signal and the score model's separate opinion at the listed total.
CONFLICT means the score model leans UNDER. A system flag does not claim model agreement.
Historical system percentages do not measure the model-agreement subset. Early lines move; nothing here is betting advice.
For entertainment purposes only. 21+.